The March To March: Conference play can pave the way
Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – Michigan State, Michigan, Syracuse and Florida were supposed to have down years.
But this down?
Meanwhile, defending champion Connecticut, SMU, Nebraska and UCLA have also started slowly after being ranked in the preseason polls.
Only two of the eight teams listed above made my initial NCAA Tournament projection bracket (listed below), but the start of conference play will allow these squads to play themselves back into the tournament discussion.
And why can’t they?
Seven of these teams sport upper-tier head coaches, with several of them Hall- of-Famers or future Hall-of-Famers. Nebraska’s Tim Miles is the lone omission.
There’s still plenty of time to fix the kinks.
And if any of these teams play their way into the tournament don’t be surprised if any of them makes a run.
Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, five double-digit power conference teams have reached the Sweet 16 — Stanford (10 – 2014), Tennessee (11 – 2014), Oregon (12 – 2013), North Carolina State (11 – 2012) and Marquette (11 – 2011). Double-digit power conference teams are also 13-13 in the second round.
Although the Big Ten is down, if Michigan State, Nebraska and Michigan can finish around the 9-9, 10-8 range in conference, that should get them in, although the Spartans are in a better position than the Wolverines and Huskers. The same could be said for ACC’s Syracuse, SEC’s Florida and Pac-12’s UCLA.
Connecticut and SMU may have a tougher task. They’ll most likely have to sport better in-conference records because the league they’re in aren’t as deep as the Big Ten, ACC, SEC or Pac-12. Connecticut and SMU might have to get to 12-6 or 13-5 to receive an at-large bid. The Mustangs went 12-6 in the AAC last season and weren’t selected into the tourney field.
Michigan might be the most erratic team of the bunch.
John Beilein had to replace four major components and the top two scorers from last year’s Elite Eight team, but the Wolverines still have versatile scorer Caris LeVert and the 3-point shooting ability of Zak Irvin. They were a top-20 team in the preseason polls, but a mid-December swoon has Michigan scrambling for answers. The Wolverines had a fine showing at the Legends Classic in late November at Barclays Center, narrowly falling to Villanova in the title game. But they dropped four straight coming off a home win against Syracuse on Dec. 2.
Michigan suffered a head-scratching home loss to NJIT (RPI 190) before following with another clunker in Ann Arbor to Eastern Michigan. Michigan was routed at Arizona and fell to SMU on Dec. 20 at Crisler Center. The Wolverines opened Big Ten play with a home overtime win against Illinois, but followed that up with a road loss at Purdue.
The Spartans are without three starters and the top two scorers from their Elite Eight squad a year ago. Coach Tom Izzo said before the season that his team has upside, but they’ve yet to play up to it. That was evident in a 71-64 overtime loss to Texas Southern (RPI 124) on Dec. 20. The Spartans began their league slate with a double-overtime loss to Maryland in what could’ve been a solid win to put on their resume.
Jacob Kurtz’s accidental last-second tip-in of Devon Bookert’s miss in a loss to in-state rival Florida State on Wednesday has exemplified Florida’s season. Also Wednesday, Daniel Hamilton’s trio of free throw misfires in the waning seconds of UConn’s loss to Temple in overtime was a perfect description of the Huskies’ year. They just haven’t been able to close. UConn had Texas beat until Jonathan Holmes knocked down a left corner 3-pointer with two seconds remaining to lift the Longhorns on Nov. 30. The same result happened in its next game when Jack Montague’s late triple lifted Yale past the Huskies.
The Gators and Huskies clashed Saturday in Gainesville, with the Huskies picking up a much-needed victory.
The quartet of Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather, Will Yeguette and Patric Young set a school record with 120 career wins, 13 NCAA Tournament victories and four straight Elite Eight appearances — 2013 Final Four visit. But those are four stalwarts Florida no longer has.
The Gators have looked a lot better since a 3-4 start, rattling off four double-digit victories in a row prior to the FSU and UConn defeats. They dropped a 69-67 decision to in-state rival Miami-Florida in their second game of the season and lost a pair in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament — Georgetown and North Carolina. UF also held a 39-24 halftime advantage against Kansas, but was outscored 47-26 over the final 20 minutes en route to a 71-65 defeat.
Florida has a trio of talented guards in Kasey Hill, Eli Carter and Michael Frazier to go along with Dorian-Finney Smith. It’s the development of former McDonald’s All-American Chris Walker, though, that might propel UF into the Big Dance. He’s yet to show the potential, but it’s time for him to make his mark. He was suspended for three games earlier this year for a violation of team rules after having to wait until the conclusion of the first semester to see court time last season.
A year removed from a postseason ban due to poor APR scores, Connecticut quickly made up for lost time by hoisting its fourth NCAA Title since 1999 last season.
But gone is Shabazz Napier. The Huskies still have Napier’s running mate from a year ago, Ryan Boatright, and the shot-swatting presence of Amidah Brimah. NC State transfer Rodney Purvis is also a key cog. Due to being in a poor league, UConn scheduled a tough non-conference slate that included Duke, Texas, Florida and Stanford. The Huskies have to beat Stanford later this month to get some resume credibility with a lack of opportunities in the AAC.
Two years ago Michael-Carter Williams led Syracuse to the Final Four and Tyler Ennis helped the Orange to a 28-6 mark a year ago. That’s a pair of NBA first- round talents.
This season at point guard? Well, another freshman, but Kaleb Joseph still has a lot to learn. Joseph had his best game of the season Dec. 20 in an overtime loss to Villanova. He recorded 10 points and 10 assists, but that was after an eight-turnover performance against Louisiana Tech.
The Orange don’t own any bad losses like Michigan or Michigan State and a victory over Iowa may turn into something by season’s end. In potential games to boost their resume, Syracuse fell to California in the semifinals of the 2K Classic, at Michigan, at home to St. John’s and at Villanova.
The expectations for the Mustangs in June were a lot higher than they were in early November.
That was before Emmanuel Mudiay, arguably the No. 1 point guard in the country and a top-five pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, decided to take his talents to China. In September, it was found that Texas Tech transfer Jordan Tolbert would lack the necessary hours to graduate from SMU in one year. He will not play for the school this season. SMU’s starting big man Markus Kennedy was then ruled ineligible for the first semester in mid-November, but was cleared to return on Dec. 19.
The talent is still there to make the tournament. Nic Moore, Sterling Brown and Keith Frazier make up a formidable backcourt. Like Syracuse, SMU doesn’t have any bad losses. The Mustangs began 2-3 with losses at Gonzaga, at Indiana and home against Arkansas, but it ripped off eight consecutive victories prior to losing at Cincinnati — a critical chance in conference to put a top-50 win on the resume.
For the last two seasons Kyle Anderson was a 6-foot-9, do-everything guard/forward for UCLA, leading the team in rebounds (8.8 rpg) and assists (6.5 apg) to go along with 14.6 points per game. Zach LaVine and Jordan Adams were also NBA first-round picks that the Bruins had to replace.
UCLA, which advanced to the Sweet 16 in coach Steve Alford’s first season, is led by his son Bryce. The Bruins are also guided by senior Norman Powell and talented freshman Kevon Looney. UCLA has yet to post a signature win and lost the first two games of its Battle 4 Atlantis tournament to Oklahoma and North Carolina. The Bruins have also recently lost to Gonzaga at home, Kentucky in Chicago, at Alabama and suffered a 71-39 blowout loss to Utah in the early stages of Pac-12 play.
Nebraska was predicted to finish last in the Big Ten last season but instead ended fourth in the standings. With loftier expectations this season, it’s been a different story. The Huskers dropped a home game to Incarnate Word on Dec. 10 and fell to Hawaii in the Diamond Head Classic. Nebraska also has losses at Rhode Island and home to Creighton. Its lone key win was a double- overtime thriller against Cincinnati on Dec. 13. Nebraska has the talent to make a move in the Big Ten, Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields make up a solid duo, but this is uncharted territory for the program.
Ultimately, five of the eight teams listed could make the tournament. Just too much talent and coaching experience for these squads to not make the Big Dance. I also think the bubble could be rather weak this season.
Nebraska, UCLA, Connecticut and SMU could be in trouble. Nebraska isn’t used to being in this position, while the Bruins, Huskies and Mustangs may have problems because the conference they’re in. But UConn is likely the best team in the AAC and should get in by winning its conference tournament.
Notes: RPI rankings are as of Jan. 4.
Projected bracket features predicted conference champions.
MIDWEST
1. Kentucky
16. New Mexico State/Coastal Carolina winner
8. UNLV
9. Ohio State
4. Seton Hall
13. Georgia Tech/SMU winner
5. Oklahoma
12. Wofford
6. George Washington
11. BYU
3. Utah
14. Northeastern
7. North Carolina
10. Old Dominion
2. Kansas
15. Murray State
SOUTH
1. Virginia
16. Florida Gulf Coast
8. Dayton
9. Georgetown
4. Iowa State
13. Stony Brook
5. Stanford
12. Harvard
6. Arkansas
11. Oklahoma State
3. Maryland
14. Syracuse/California winner
7. Colorado State
10. Temple
2. Villanova
15. St. Francis (PA)
EAST
1. Duke
16. UCSB/Alabama State winner
8. LSU
9. Northern Iowa
4. Texas
13. Buffalo
5. VCU
12. Stephen F. Austin
6. Butler
11. Green Bay
3. Wichita State
14. NC Central
7. Baylor
10. Iowa
2. Arizona
15. Iona
WEST
1. Wisconsin
16. Florida Gulf Coast
8. San Diego State
9. Cincinnati
4. West Virginia
13. Georgia State
5. Notre Dame
12. Providence
6. Washington
11. Penn State
3. Louisville
14. Northeastern
7. St. John’s
10. Georgia
2. Gonzaga
15. American
Categorized in: NCAA Basketball