Rounding Third: Breaking down the LCS

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – And then there were four.

And if you had these four at the start, well, you my friend could have made yourself a lot of money. Particularly in the American League.

In the American League we have the Kansas City Royals back in the American League Championship Series for the first time since winning it all in 1985, squaring off against the Baltimore Orioles, a team seeking its first World Series title since 1983.

Kansas City may have been a trendy preseason pick to reach the playoffs, but to get this far? Not even the most die-hard Royals fan could have seen this coming, especially since they were seven games back of the AL Central champion Detroit Tigers on July 24.

The Orioles reached the playoffs two years ago, but heading into the season they were viewed as, at best, the fourth best team in the AL East, let alone the league, behind the New York Yankees, defending champion Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.

Looking back, that may have been an awful assessment.

Regardless, this series comes down to one thing. Can the Royals keep the Orioles in the ballpark?

Baltimore wins by hitting home runs. It hit a major league best 211 during the season and 47.8 percent of its runs this season came off of homers, the third highest percentage in history.

The Tigers’ Cy Young triumvirate were unable to neutralize that in the ALDS, as the O’s scored seven of their 21 runs in the series via the home run. To be fair, nearly half of the runs Baltimore tallied in the ALDS came against a beleaguered Tigers bullpen.

That won’t happen against the Royals.

Kansas City’s staff gave up the third-fewest home runs in the league at 128. However, it has surrendered six in four postseason games. But, if the Royals can somehow get a lead to the three-headed bullpen monster of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, it could be lights out for the Orioles.

That group combined for a 1.28 ERA and 258 strikeouts in 205 1/3 innings in the regular season.

It has been more of the same here in the postseason, as the Royals bullpen has accounted for three victories and has pitched to a 2.37 ERA. They have also fanned 21 batters in 19 innings.

Offensively, no team signified small ball more than Kansas City, which won 89 games this season thanks in large part to its ability to play defense and manufacture runs.

Kansas City may have ranked dead last in home runs during the regular season, but has enjoyed the luxury of going deep here in the postseason and won the first two games in Anaheim on the strength of two extra-inning homers.

Amazingly, the Royals have hit just as many homers this postseason (4) as the Orioles, a team that blasted 116 more than them during the regular season.

It will be interesting to see if Baltimore catcher Caleb Joseph can keep the Royals off the bases. KC led the league in stolen bases this season and has already swiped 12 bases this postseason. Joseph, who is hitless in his last 33 at-bats, led the AL by throwing out 40-percent of potential base stealers.

Baltimore’s lineup wasn’t shut down by the Tigers’ aces, but still, most of its damage was done against a bullpen that was nowhere near the caliber of the one it will face this series.

Still, I think the Orioles’ offense will continue to hit Kansas City pitching, starting pitching that is. Plus Baltimore’s starting staff is very underrated. Chris Tillman is really good and Bud Norris has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the start of September.

Kansas City may have all the momentum and as exciting as it is, it’s hard to imagine the Royals being able to hang with the O’s from a scoring standpoint.

As far as the National League goes, it’s business as usual. The St. Louis Cardinals are into this round for the fourth straight season against the San Francisco Giants, who have won two of the last four Fall Classics.

This will be the fifth time that one of these teams will be representing the NL in the World Series. And for the fifth straight time the argument can be made that neither of these teams were the best the NL has to offer.

But they both just find ways to win.

Since the wild card format came into play in 1995, more NLCS have been played with either the Giants, Cardinals or both (11 times) than not (9 times).

St. Louis was able to beat Clayton Kershaw twice in the ALDS, but could be entering this series less than 100-percent, as there has been some speculation that ace Adam Wainwright is dealing with some arm issues.

St. Louis manager Mike Matheny insists Wainwright is healthy and he will be on the hill for Game 1.

Wainwright, though, didn’t pitch particularly well in his Game 1 start (6 runs, 11 hits, 6 1/3 innings) versus the Dodgers and his health has been called into question, as he has dealt with arm issues on-and-off throughout the season.

“There’s no question Waino has been fighting it,” Matheny said. “I’ve not made that a secret, and neither has he. It’s all going to come down to how he feels. The likelihood of him saying he can’t go is very slim, but it is a possibility that something might not feel right.”

No pitcher in baseball has thrown more innings since the start of the 2013 season than Wainwright, who has logged 508 (including the postseason).

Can the Cardinals win without a healthy Wainwright? Well, yes, they just did. And they did so because they are set up real well behind him with John Lackey, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller.

Plus it’s not exactly the Murders’ Row Yankees they will be facing either.

Actually neither team brings much to the table offensively.

St. Louis ranked dead last in the NL with 105 home runs, but it’s smacked seven in these playoffs. The Giants struggled to score runs toward the end of the season, managing just 44 runs over the final 15 games of the season, and only crossed the plate nine times in the series win over the Nationals.

The reason why the Giants will have a shot in this series is pitching, as it was the last two times they advanced out of this round to eventually win a World Series.

This time, though, it’s Madison Bumgarner leading the way. He’s as good as any pitcher in baseball and is capable of carrying a team on his back. Plus he has two wily veteran arms behind him in Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson, who just know how to get it done.

Still, the key to the Giants’ staff could be Ryan Vogelsong.

What?

Pay attention.

With his terrific outing in Tuesday’s clincher, Vogelsong became the only starting pitcher in MLB to allow one run or fewer in each of his first five career postseason starts (since 1903).

In fact, Vogelsong is just the second pitcher in postseason history to have five consecutive starts of allowing one or fewer runs (Curt Schilling: 6 starts from Oct. 21, 1993 to Oct. 31, 2001). He’s also pitched to a 1.19 ERA in five postseason starts, with the Giants going 5-0 in those outings.

Could there be more of an evenly matched LCS than this one? These two teams almost mirror each other and they know each over very well.

Neither hits a whole lot, they are both led by tremendous starting staffs, backed by two of the best catchers in baseball, and their bullpens are almost identical.

On paper, at full strength, this is a toss up. But, I don’t think St. Louis is at full strength. Wainwright is hurting. Something is up with that arm. So much so that Matheny hinted that he may have turned to Lynn in a potential Game 5 in the NLDS. Maybe Lackey steps up and fills the role of stopper for the Cards, but I have more faith in the Giants staff overall.

And, of course, I buy into the Giants even-year thing.

Buckle in, it’s going to be a wild week.

PREDICTIONS:

ORIOLES in SIX

GIANTS in SIX

Categorized in: MLB