UTEP to become bowl eligible with upset victory

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – It has been four years since Texas-El Paso reached the postseason but the Miners are one game away from achieving that feat with four games left to play.

UTEP is at Western Kentucky this Saturday looking for its fourth consecutive victory, an accomplishment the program has not attained since the aforementioned 2010 campaign when the Miners finished the regular season at 6-6. This season, they have a chance to win nine games for the first time since 1988.

Sean Kugler’s club allowed 30 points or more in four of its first six games. However, the defense has been outstanding of late with a total of 14 points allowed in its last two games. The Miners rolled UTSA, 34-0, on Oct. 25 and then blew out Southern Miss, 35-14, last Saturday.

This contest at Western Kentucky will be UTEP’s toughest test from a defensive standpoint as the Hilltoppers average 41 points per game (10th best nationally) and 377 passing yards per game, good for second best in the country.

One thing going for the Miners is their pass defense, which ranks 41st nationally, allowing 208 yards per game. They even held Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinicke to 13-of-25 passing for 196 yards in last month’s win over the Monarchs.

UTEP has lost three games this season with two coming against teams (Kansas State and Louisiana Tech) with a combined record of 13-4. The Miners have been dominant against clubs with losing records, winning five of six. The lone defeat came versus Texas Tech by just four points.

Western Kentucky is near the bottom in the country in scoring defense (43 ppg) and total defense (544 ypg). In fact, the Hilltoppers have allowed an average of 49 ppg over their last four games (three losses). They also are giving up 228 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry, which plays right into the hands of the Miners, who possess one of the game’s better ground attacks.

Jeff Brohm’s squad comes into this matchup off a 59-10 loss at Louisiana Tech and the Hilltoppers rarely bounce back after a loss. In fact, they have failed to win their next game following a loss five consecutive times. Look for the Miners to make it six in a row.

Take Texas-El Paso plus 7.5 points in this week’s lone five-star play.

THREE-STAR CHOICES

Utah State survived its trip to Hawaii last week with 4th-string quarterback Kent Myers leading the way. The score was tied 14-14 after the first quarter but the Aggies recovered a fumble for a touchdown early in the second and that turned the tide as they defeated Hawaii, 35-14.

Myers was brilliant completing 14-of-15 passes for 186 yards and three touchdowns. However, it will be tough for him and the rest of the team to duplicate that performance off the trip back to the mainland on a short week.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home with the only defeat coming in overtime. The Cowboys are improving offensively, averaging 31 points per game in their last four contests, almost doubling their 16 ppg average over the first five games.

On the other side, Utah State is 2-3 on the road and outscored 22-to-21. To put that in perspective, the Aggies are 4-0 at home, outscoring their opponents 36-to-20. This one will be much closer than the line indicates.

Take Wyoming plus seven points.

Oregon won its toughest test last week in its own personal game of the year – at home against Stanford. That was the contest the Ducks had circled on their calendar after Stanford got the best of them the last two years.

Mark Helfrich’s squad finally got past its conference nemesis and now must go into Utah where the Utes have lost just one game (by a single point) this season. Moreover, their games usually come down to the wire as their last five games have been decided by six points or less. Utah’s defense should slow down Oregon’s offense just enough to get the ATS victory.

Take Utah plus eight points.

Boise State is having a much-improved 2014 compared to its 8-5 campaign of a year ago. The Broncos are in the midst of their second three-game winning streak of the season, which includes a 25-point victory over BYU on Oct. 24.

The previous time they won by 25 points (over Louisiana) they lost the next game on the road against an option-based offense. Sound familiar?

The Broncos visit New Mexico, a team coming off a road victory over UNLV. It was the Lobos’ third win away from home this season. Unfortunately, they have lost (and failed to cover) all four of their home games. This one will be different as they are 3-0 ATS the last three meetings with Boise State.

The Broncos have had a poor history of defending triple-option attack offenses. They are 0-6 ATS to said teams since 2011, and even lost earlier this season at Air Force.

The Lobos have been extremely competitive in seven of their eight games in 2014. The only contest they failed to stay within 11 points of the winner came against an Arizona State team ranked ninth in the most recent college football playoff rankings.

Take New Mexico plus 18 points.

Minnesota has won 10 of its last 15 games, including four in a row prior to its last contest – a disastrous performance at Illinois. It was the Golden Gophers’ worst performance as favorites since losing to New Mexico State as the 22.5-point choice early in the 2011 season. With a week off to think about that matchup, look for Minnesota to come out strong at home against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes had their biggest win of the season last week – a 41-point home stomping of Northwestern. It was their largest margin of victory against a Big Ten opponent in six years. Expect a letdown in Minneapolis where they have lost two of the last three meetings.

Take Minnesota plus 1.5 points.

Speaking of the Northwestern Wildcats, they host Michigan fresh off their brutal defeat at the hands of Iowa. With Notre Dame coming up on Nov. 15, this game is a must win since they need three wins in their final four games to be bowl eligible.

Michigan seems to have gotten its act together with two wins in its last three games, but both were at home and one came against a team with a true freshman quarterback making his second career start. The Wolverines are 0-3 on the road and will be 0-4 after the Wildcats get the victory.

Take Northwestern plus 1.5 points.

TWO-STAR SELECTIONS

Take Louisiana Tech -4 (UAB), Troy -7 (Georgia State) and LSU +6.5 (Alabama),

ONE-STAR PLAYS

Take Wake Forest +21 (Clemson), Vanderbilt +14.5 (Florida), Texas +3.5 (West Virginia), Kansas State +6 (TCU), Notre Dame +2.5 (Arizona State) and UNLV +5.5 (Air Force)

THIS YEAR’S RECORD

My overall record stands at 74-69-5 after a 5-6-1 mark in Week 10. The five- star selections went 1-2 for a 6-7 total. The three-star plays went 0-2 and are 10-9-1 overall. The two-star choices went 2-1 for a ten-week total of 27-26. The one-star plays went 2-1-1 for a 31-27-4 mark.

THIS WEEK’S JEFF FRANK DIRTY DOZEN

1-T) Oregon and Alabama, 102.5; 3) Ohio State, 102; 4) Ole Miss, 101.5; 5-T) Florida State and TCU, 101; 7) Auburn, 100.5; 8) Michigan State, 100; 9) Baylor, 99.5; 10-T) Oklahoma and Georgia, 98.5; 12) Mississippi State, 98

(The Dirty Dozen is not a reflection of a given team’s won-loss record. It is based on power ratings used to predict spreads for the upcoming week. At the beginning of the season, all FBS teams are assigned a power number, which changes on a week-to-week basis depending on the results of the previous week.)

Categorized in: NCAA Football