Up the Backstretch: Weights don’t lie for Big ‘Cap

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – The weight assignments have been announced and preliminary morning line odds have been offered for Saturday’s 77th running of the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap.

The top three nominees for the 1 1/4-mile Big ‘Cap — Mucho Macho Man, Will Take Charge and Game On Dude — have been assigned top weights of 124, 123 and 122 pounds, respectively. The next two horses at 117 pounds each are Blingo and Blueskiesnrainbows. So there is a clear separation between the top three horses and the rest of the field.

Santa Anita’s oddsmaker Jon White also has offered an early look at the morning line for Saturday’s Big ‘Cap.

White, speaking to the track’s Ed Golden, indicated that Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man will be the 9-5 favorite with Will Take Charge at 2-1 and Game On Dude 5-2.

“In trying to determine Big ‘Cap favoritism, a key reason for making Mucho Macho Man the morning line favorite over Will Take Charge is Mucho Macho Man was a shorter price than Will Take Charge in the Breeders’ Cup Classic,” White explained.

Mucho Macho Man, who defeated Will Take Charge by a nose in the Classic at Santa Anita, went off at 4-1 in that race. The runner-up was 8-1 and Game On Dude was the defeated 17-10 favorite.

“Even though Will Take Charge did not win the Donn (Handicap at Gulfstream on Feb. 9), he ran well. The winner, Lea, broke the track record (for 1 1/8 miles). But any way you slice it, Mucho Macho Man is going into the Big ‘Cap off a 14-length win, while Will Take Charge is going into it off a loss.

“Another reason for making Mucho Macho Man the favorite is his excellent record on Santa Anita’s main track. Mucho Macho Man ran a very good race on Santa Anita’s main track when he finished second to Fort Larned in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2012. He also won the Awesome Again on Santa Anita’s main track before last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.”

Game On Dude will be defending his 2013 Big ‘Cap victory, but is on a rare three-race losing streak. The 7-year-old, who also won the race in 2011, lost last month’s San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita after ending 2013 with a loss to Will Take Charge in the Clark Handicap four weeks after finishing ninth in the Classic.

“But while it’s true that Game On Dude has lost three in a row and didn’t hit the board in the San Antonio,” While said, “one still has to take into consideration that he is a two-time Big ‘Cap winner and he does have a terrific record on Santa Anita’s main track — seven wins from 10 starts.

“I think it’s very difficult to try and predict just how much Game On Dude’s stock with the bettors has fallen now that he’s lost three straight. Would I be surprised if he goes off higher than 5-2? No, that really wouldn’t surprise me. On the other hand, considering Game On Dude has been the favorite in 15 straight races in this country, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off lower than 5-2.

“All in all, it’s wonderful to see three outstanding older horses like Mucho Macho Man, Will Take Charge and Game On Dude clash in this year’s Big ‘Cap.”

The presence of Game On Dude no longer will scare away rivals, but the addition of Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge will at least make interest in the 2014 Big ‘Cap comparable to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Categorized in: Horses