The March To March: Backloaded schedules offer opportunity
Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – The last 10 games of a college basketball season can make or break you when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament.
Just ask Iowa.
The Hawkeyes nearly missed out last year after a promising 19-6 start. They dropped six of their last seven games prior to the start of the tourney, including a loss to lowly Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. They then lost to Tennessee in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
A strong finish, however, can either help you sneak in or vault you up the seed line.
Virginia won 16 of its last 17 contests a year ago prior to the NCAA Tournament, defeated Duke in the ACC Tournament title game and earned a No. 1 seed. The aforementioned Volunteers got hot to close last season.
The stacked Big 12 has seven of its 10 teams inside the top 50 of the RPI rankings. While they might be beating up on each other, a few of those squads with backloaded schedules can improve their seedings in the NCAA Tournament come March. Of course, if some of those teams free fall, they might miss out on the tournament all together.
West Virginia has already built a case for being a potential top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament, but can strengthen its resume if it can navigate through its last 10 games.
WVU, which played just three top-50 teams over its first eight conference games en route to a 6-2 start, will square off with nine of them down the stretch. Six of those clashes will be against the top 25. The Mountaineers still have to play Kansas and Baylor twice and visit Oklahoma and Iowa State, respectively. If they can win five of those nine tilts, it may be enough to earn them a No. 2 or 3 seed.
Five of Oklahoma State’s last nine contests are against the top 25 — six against the top 50. The Cowboys, who sport a 4-5 conference mark and sit seventh in the standings, have dropped four of their last six games. OK-State is currently in that 9-11 seed range and a dismal closing stretch may lead to an NIT appearance. Some signature wins, however, will get the Cowboys in.
Kansas State is an interesting case. The Wildcats have a respectable 4-6 mark against the top 50 of the RPI — 2-4 against the top 25 — but have already piled up 10 losses.
K-State, which has dropped three of its last four Big 12 games following a 4-1 start, can still get into the NCAA Tournament discussion. The Wildcats have five tilts remaining against the top 25 and seven of their last nine overall against the top 50. Kansas State is just 84th in the RPI and isn’t sniffing the NCAA Tournament discussion at the moment, but a red-hot finish and a run in the conference tourney just might be enough for a bid.
Moving away from the Big 12 and to another impressive league with a chance to accumulate key wins is the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Syracuse has yet to garner a top-50 win in four opportunities, but will have several chances to acquire signature victories to close the year.
The Orange have five games against the top 25 and six of their last 10 against the top 50. Jim Boeheim’s boys haven’t been in my projected bracket for weeks, but they play Duke twice, have Louisville and Virginia at home and will travel to Notre Dame and NC State. If they can get a pair of wins against the likes of Duke, Louisville, Virginia and Notre Dame, that might be enough to warrant an NCAA Tournament selection.
Washington has been in free-fall since an encouraging beginning to its campaign, but the Huskies have lost seven of their last 10 tilts and are 3-5 in Pac-12 play. They have also dropped four against teams outside of the top 100 of the RPI.
But UW still has a chance to turn its season around. It will have a pair of shots to knock off one of the Pac-12 heavyweights at home with matchups against Arizona and Utah. As long as it doesn’t keep recording bad losses, the Huskies could sneak into the tourney field.
Tulsa is atop the American Athletic Conference with an unblemished 9-0 mark, but has work to do to make the NCAA field of 68 if it doesn’t win the conference tourney. The Golden Hurricane are just 1-3 against the top 50 of the RPI, but has home games against Temple and Cincinnati and a road tilt at SMU. A win at Connecticut would also help.
Davidson has raced off to a respectable 5-3 Atlantic 10 record, although it suffered a bad loss at Saint Joseph’s Saturday. The Wildcats still have four key games remaining in conference, two against George Washington, a home showdown with top-25 RPI foe VCU and at Rhode Island. If they knock off the Rams, win three of those four games overall and don’t suffer any more bad losses, Davidson might be chosen for the NCAA tourney field.
Saint Mary’s is 17-5 and 9-2 in the West Coast Conference, but has only had two occasions to knock off top-50 RPI foes and dropped both. The Gaels also have a pair of defeats against schools outside the top 100. They will, however, get an opportunity to beat Gonzaga at home and a triumph at BYU should help as well. If they can finish the year undefeated and reach the final of the WCC tourney, that might allow them to dance come March.
The Southeastern Conference currently has just unbeaten Kentucky ranked in the polls and two in the top 25 of the RPI — the other is Arkansas. The league may struggle for several bids, but if any squad can knock off Kentucky, it could go a long way toward being selected.
Of the seven teams in the conference with above-.500 marks, Kentucky not included, five have games remaining against the Wildcats. Florida and Georgia will meet UK twice, LSU and Tennessee will get the opportunity to clip the ‘Cats at home and Arkansas will face them in Lexington.
While a strong finish can help solidify an NCAA Tournament selection, a woeful one may not garner an invitation at all.
Down the stretch they come.
PROJECTED BRACKET
MIDWEST (Cleveland)
1. Kentucky* vs. 16. New Mexico State*/Saint Francis-NY* winner
8. Xavier vs. 9. Colorado State
4. North Carolina vs. 13. Long Beach State*
5. Baylor vs. 12. Iona*
6. Oklahoma vs. 11. NC State/George Washington winner
3. Louisville vs. 14. Murray State*
7. Georgetown vs. 10. Georgia
2. Wisconsin* vs. 15. Florida Gulf Coast*
SOUTH (Houston)
1. Duke vs. 16. Albany*
8. Oklahoma State vs. 9. Dayton
4. Maryland vs. 13. Western Kentucky*
5. Wichita State vs. 12. Green Bay*
6. Providence vs. 11. Ole Miss
3. West Virginia vs. 14. William & Mary*
7. SMU vs. 10. Iowa
2. Arizona* vs. 15. High Point*
EAST (Syracuse)
1. Virginia* vs. 16. Sacramento State*/Bucknell* winner
8. San Diego State* vs. 9. Cincinnati
4. Utah vs. 13. Stephen F. Austin*
5. VCU* vs. 12. St. John’s/Michigan State winner
6. Ohio State vs. 11. Tulsa*
3. Iowa State vs. 14. NC Central*
7. Arkansas vs. 10. Miami-Florida
2. Villanova* vs. 15. Georgia Southern*
WEST (Los Angeles)
1. Gonzaga* vs. 16. Texas Southern*
8. Stanford vs. 9. LSU
4. Butler vs. 13. Yale*
5. Northern Iowa* vs. 12. Wofford*
6. Indiana vs. 11. Old Dominion
3. Notre Dame vs. 14. Akron*
7. Seton Hall vs. 10. Texas
2. Kansas* vs. 15. South Dakota State*
FIRST FOUR OUT
Texas A&M
Syracuse
Temple
Florida
NEXT FOUR OUT
Davidson
Washington
Kansas State
Massachusetts
* – denotes conference leader. In a result of a tie atop the standings, the team with the higher RPI was chosen.
Categorized in: NCAA Basketball