Nothin’ but Net: Blazers are in serious trouble
Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – Sadly, the Portland Trail Blazers’ chances at an NBA championship crumpled to the ground late Thursday.
Shooting guard Wesley Matthews tore his left Achilles tendon. Season over and Portland’s title chances are over along with Matthews’ season.
It may sound strange that a team’s third-leading scorer and fourth-best player could carry that much weight in a team’s aspirations, but the Trail Blazers are a special team.
No team relies heavier on their starters than the Blazers. Portland is 29th in bench scoring and 29th in bench minutes. Four Portland starters rank in the top 32 in minutes per game, including Matthews.
Good thing the Blazers acquired Arron Afflalo. He is a professional, starting shooting guard in the NBA, but he is not Matthews.
Matthews is second in the league in 3-pointers attempted, fourth in made 3- pointers and 26th in long-range shooting percentage. His 38.9 percent shooting is very respectable considering he jacked up seven 3-pointers a game.
Where does Afflalo rank on those lists? He’s 31st in beyond-the-arc attempts, 41st in converted long balls, shooting 34 percent from 3-point land. Afflalo’s inferiority in long-range prowess means changes for the Portland offense.
In fairness, Afflalo owns a career average of 38.4 percent, so his numbers could improve. The Blazers average 27.7 3-point shot attempts per game, so Afflalo will see more looks.
Offensively, the Blazers might be fine without Matthews. Fine is not the correct word. They might be adequate without Matthews. His absence hurts two other areas specifically.
Remember how poor that bench is? Afflalo has averaged 8.6 points in his six games with the Blazers. He’s played over 30 minutes twice, so he’ll score more with more playing time, but his starting status cripples this second unit.
The reserves now comprise Chris Kaman, Steve Blake and Dorell Wright. That’s not nearly enough. Alonzo Gee might see some run and C.J. McCollum, who has generally been an afterthought when healthy, will need to be the primary wing playmaker and scorer while Matthews is gone.
The other problem is defense. Portland is ninth in the league in opponents’ scoring and third in opponents’ field-goal percentage. They are a top-flight defensive team and Matthews is a part of that.
Matthews is 28th in defensive win shares, according to Basketball- reference.com. Afflalo is 254th. Little bit of discrepancy there, huh? Afflalo is not a terrible defender, but he’s not as good as Matthews. The Portland defense will take a hit.
Perhaps the bigger question in play was, did you believe the Trail Blazers were a legitimate NBA title contender? They are third in the Western Conference, which should make them viable contenders. They may trail the Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies in people’s minds, but the Blazers are tough.
With Matthews out, it’s conceivable Portland could drop to seventh in the Western Conference. San Antonio is currently No. 7, four games behind the Blazers. The Los Angeles Clippers are fifth and two games in back of the Blazers. That’s the difference between home-court advantage in the Western Conference. It’s probable Portland won’t escape the West without hosting a series.
When a starter goes down, most everyone else is plugged into rotations differently to compensate. Having multiple parts doing unexpected jobs doesn’t work well.
It’s harder for the Blazers considering their depth issues. Matthews’ injury robs Portland of an opportunity. They are no longer title contenders, assuming you thought they ever were.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
– Matthews is a free agent at season’s end. This should impact that tremendously. It’s plausible his injury, which is by no means career- threatening, might scare teams and make it easier for Portland to re-sign him. Matthews might be the most attractive shooting guard on the market.
– It was mildly surprising Ray Allen decided not to come back this season. Plenty of contenders need shooters. What was most surprising is that Allen hasn’t closed the door on coming back next season. I assumed if he didn’t come back now, he’d retire. That’s not the case. Maybe he didn’t like the landscape of teams needing him or maybe he thought going back to the Miami Heat really served no purpose.
– The decision to make public officials’ mistakes late in games is tricky, but ultimately, if we hold coaches and players as accountable as we do, wouldn’t officials be next in line?
– My MVP ballot hasn’t changed – 1. James Harden; 2. Steph Curry; 3. LeBron James and 4. Russell Westbrook. What hurts Westbrook is that, when the team is not upper-echelon – and, no, the Thunder are not if they’re battling for the eighth seed – the stats need to be from another world. This triple-double run is superhuman, but overall the stats don’t make it such that Westbrook has to be voted ahead of the other men above him.
– Movie moment – Finally watched a Best Picture nominee and that was “Whiplash.” I liked it a lot, but didn’t love it. J.K. Simmons is a bad dude. After watching, I felt sympathy for the drummers in the movie who had to kill themselves physically, which was part of the point of the movie. Worth a look.
– TV moment – There has not been a more original idea on television since I can remember than “The Last Man on Earth.” You can assume the premise. Caught a good chunk of the pilot. I’m in.
Categorized in: NBA