Georgia Tech to ruin Florida State’s playoff chances

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – Florida State has been on the cusp of losing each of its last six games. Nevertheless, the Seminoles have come out on the winning end each time. However, this Saturday will be a different story.

Georgia Tech is the most accomplished opponent Florida State has faced this season even though the Yellow Jackets started slowly – struggling with Wofford and Tulane before defeating Georgia Southern and Virginia Tech by a combined seven points.

Then, after beating Miami-Florida, the Yellow Jackets lost back-to-back games to Duke and North Carolina. However, they bounced back playing their best ball in years with four straight wins by a combined 108 points. An upset victory over Georgia, their first win over the Bulldogs in six years, capped a 10-2 regular season.

Looking at it another way, Georgia Tech’s defense allowed an average of 28 points per game its first eight contests. Since then, the unit has given up 10 fewer points per game. Meanwhile, the offense has clicked for eight more points per game over the second half of the season compared to the first half.

Florida State’s inconsistencies have been well documented. The Seminoles outscored their opponents, 39-21 over the first six games but their margin of victory over the last six has been just seven points, with half of those six games separated by four points or less.

Many teams find it difficult to defend Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack, especially if they are not familiar with it. That will be the case in this one as Florida State has played the Yellow Jackets just once since 2009.

That matchup also was an ACC Championship contest with the Seminoles pulling out a 21-15 win as 15-point favorites. The Yellow Jackets won the prior two meetings, covering both games. Going back to 2002, Georgia Tech is 5-0 against the spread the last five battles with Florida State.

All the pressure is on the Seminoles as they must win to secure a spot in the four-team college football playoffs. They have had to deal with that pressure on a weekly basis in November and survived against lesser competition. This will be the week they fall.

Take Georgia Tech plus four points in this week’s lone five-star play.

THREE-STAR PLAYS

Marshall’s unbeaten season came to an end last week against Western Kentucky. The Thundering Herd scored 66 points but still lost in overtime by one point, 67-66. They remain home against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship matchup.

The Herd were in this spot last year but fell to Rice on the road. This time they host the Bulldogs and are favored by 11.5 points. They have not been this low a favorite since September when they gave 11 points at Akron. Will they cover? Will they even win straight up?

One thing is for certain, this is not the same team that outscored its opponents by an average margin of 47-16 over its first 10 games. The last two contests were tight battles over a pair of 4-4 C-USA squads in UAB and Western Ky.

Now Marshall faces a Louisiana Tech club coming off a 45-point stomping of Rice. The Bulldogs, 7-1 in C-USA play, have lost just one game since the beginning of October and it came in overtime. Their only two other FBS defeats came at the hands of Oklahoma and Auburn.

The Bulldogs have the firepower to stay with Marshall, so don’t expect them to get blown out, particularly with the way the Herd are playing.

Take Louisiana Tech plus 11.5 points.

The final two three-star selections come from the AAC.

Houston is at Cincinnati and the Bearcats are favored by seven points. They have won six consecutive conference contests but cannot win the league title due to their loss to Memphis.

Cincinnati won last year’s matchup in Houston by seven points but the Cougars were only 2-2 at home versus FBS competition last year. (They also are just 4-3 at home in 2014.)

This year’s matchup is an away game for the Cougars, who are 6-3 in their last nine road games, including a pair of upset victories over Memphis and Rutgers. Furthermore, they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games.

These teams have played two league clubs with winning records. Houston defeated Memphis and lost to UCF by just five. Cincinnati was crushed by Memphis and barely pulled out the win over East Carolina despite the eight- point margin of victory.

Take Houston plus seven points.

SMU looks for its first win of the season against 2-9 Connecticut. The Mustangs came close to winning a few weeks ago before losing a one-point contest to South Florida – a game the Bulls won with four seconds remaining.

The Mustangs only other game against a weak opponent was a 10-point road loss to Tulsa. However, they were down by just seven with just over one minute on the clock.

Connecticut is just as bad as South Florida and Tulsa. The Huskies beat UCF for their lone FBS win but lost the following three games by a combined score of 117-31.

Even though this is a long trip to Storrs, the Mustangs have an extra day of rest after losing to Houston last Friday. They should be the hungrier of the two teams, and even if they fail to win, should cover the large spread.

Take SMU plus 12 points.

TWO-STAR SELECTION

Take Missouri +14.5 (Alabama).

ONE-STAR PLAYS

Take Bowling Green +6.5 (Northern Illinois), over 52.5 points in Ohio State- Wisconsin and Ohio State +4.5 (Wisconsin).

THIS YEAR’S RECORD

My overall record stands at 99-85-5 after a 5-2 mark in Week 14. The one five- star selection proved victorious so that record jumped to 9-8. The three-star plays went 1-2 and are 20-14-1 overall. The lone two-star choice was a winner so that total stands at 33-29. The one-star plays went 2-0 for a 37-34-4 mark.

THIS WEEK’S JEFF FRANK DIRTY DOZEN

1) Oregon, 106; 2) Michigan State, 104; 3) TCU, 103; 4) Alabama, 102; 5-T) Georgia and Ole Miss, 100.5; 7) Mississippi State, 99.5; 8) Baylor, 98; 9) Wisconsin, 97.5; 10-T) Georgia Tech, Kansas State and USC, 96.5

(The Dirty Dozen is not a reflection of a given team’s won-loss record. It is based on power ratings used to predict spreads for the upcoming week. At the beginning of the season, all FBS teams are assigned a power number, which changes on a week-to-week basis depending on the results of the previous week.)

Categorized in: NCAA Football