Dorm Report: Playoff outlook shakes up

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – It was a wacky Week 6 in the college football world, which saw some of the favored programs to make the first-ever college football playoff at the end of this season drop in the AP Top 25 thanks to untimely losses.

Following defeats to No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Alabama and No. 4 Oklahoma, the Top 25 rankings experienced a serious shakeup earlier in the week. Teams like Auburn (No. 2), Mississippi State and Ole Miss (tied at No. 3) and Baylor (No. 5) have all moved up in the rankings.

The college football schedule is only about halfway through its duration, and one can expect more to happen later this season that will change the outlook of the Top 25.

But if the season ended now, and the college football playoff were to start today, here’s what we would be looking at:

Florida State would play either Ole Miss or Mississippi State, and the team not playing the top-ranked Seminoles would take on second-ranked Auburn, last year’s national runner-up.

Somehow this lineup doesn’t seem very sexy. A four-team college playoff without Alabama or Oregon? Who would’ve seen that coming?

One loss isn’t necessarily a dream killer, and a strong contingency of college football fans likely doesn’t believe Alabama and Oregon are down and out. But let’s examine the teams that would almost certainly make it today should the season end now.

There’s a feeling across the nation that perhaps Florida State (5-0) shouldn’t be the top-ranked team. The Seminoles needed overtime to dispel Clemson a few weeks back when Jameis Winston was suspended (though he got a significant amount of camera time for someone not on the field). Perhaps the Seminoles haven’t built up as strong of a team around Winston as people may have thought.

But until Florida State loses a game, the team may retain the top ranking in the country. The Atlantic Coast Conference will provide some challenges for the Seminoles, and a clash with currently sixth-ranked Notre Dame on Oct. 18 will be a big test.

Winston, after a Heisman Trophy-winning season and a few off-field blunders, ranks 44th in the nation in passing yards (1,288), and has eight touchdown passes against five interceptions. It’s not the best ratio for last year’s Heisman winner. If the playoffs started now, the defending national champs might have a hard time handling the red-hot play of any of the three other competitors.

Auburn (5-0) has only really received a scare from then-20th-ranked Kansas State in the Tigers’ 20-14 win in Week 3. Otherwise, Auburn has blown out every opponent it has played, scoring at least 41 points in each of those four contests and limiting opponents to a high of 21 points.

Quarterback Nick Marshall has been sensational in his quest for the Heisman Trophy. Marshall has thrown for eight touchdowns and 755 yards, and rushed for four more scores on 58 carries. The team’s offense, which averages 42 points per game, has been overpowering, while the defense (allowing 14.4 ppg) is suffocating. The team has its sights set on making it back to the title game, but must compete with a tough SEC and Mississippi State this weekend.

Speaking of the Bulldogs (5-0), there may not be a hotter team in the nation at the moment. Mississippi State is fresh off a victory over Texas A&M which boosted the team into the Top 10 for the first time since the 1999 season.

When it comes to Heisman candidates, Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott just might be at the top of the list. The dual-threat signal caller has tossed 13 touchdown passes and over 1,200 yards and rushed for six touchdowns in five games. He has even caught a touchdown.

The Bulldogs, like Auburn, are averaging over 42 points and are holding opponents to scoring totals in the teens. Mississippi State is well-rounded offensively, with a strong running game that averages 272.6 yards per game. The team’s defense is tenacious, having forced nine interceptions, three fumble recoveries and 18 sacks in five games. This weekend’s matchup with Auburn will be a spoiler for one team and a huge boost for the other.

Trailing in last weekend’s game with Alabama headed into the fourth quarter, Ole Miss (5-0) rattled off two touchdowns and kept the Bama offense quiet to hold on to a 23-17 victory. The win vaulted the Rebels into a two-way tie with intrastate and SEC rival Mississippi State for third in the nation.

Ole Miss has employed a stifling defense that has kept strong offenses like Boise State (13 points) Vanderbilt (three points), Memphis (three points) and Alabama silent this season. The Rebels rank fifth in the FBS in total defense (277.6 ypg allowed) and second in scoring defense (10.2 ppg).

It will be a tough road moving forward with games against Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn and a regular-season finale against Mississippi State still on the slate. But if the team can get through Alabama, perhaps the sky is the limit.

Baylor, Notre Dame, TCU and Arizona are four Top 10 teams that have yet to lose a game this season, but with conference play officially in full swing, the real standouts in the FBS will start to emerge. Maybe it’s exactly what we see right now.

The playoff outlook as it stands at the moment is a bit of a surprise with Alabama, Oregon and Oklahoma on the outside looking in. But as the weeks roll on, we’ll see how things continue to change.

Categorized in: NCAA Football