Wisconsin is too high a favorite over Iowa
Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – Wisconsin, a winner of six straight, comes into Iowa off its 59-24 stomping of Nebraska, a game Melvin Gordon ran for 408 yards. Can the Badgers continue their run in Iowa City against the Hawkeyes?
The oddsmakers are in love with Wisconsin in this contest, but bear in mind, the Badgers are just 2-2 in games away from home this season.
They lost their opener in Houston against a very young LSU squad and then failed at Northwestern in early October. Gary Andersen’s club rebounded with a pair of consecutive road wins at Rutgers and Purdue but those two teams are a combined 3-9 in Big Ten play.
Iowa is 4-2 in the conference, just one game behind Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes blew out Northwestern, 48-7, in their last home contest and knocked off Indiana, 45-29, in a game Hoosier’s quarterback Nate Sudfeld played almost a quarter and a half. Iowa outscored those two teams 52-7 in the first quarter alone.
It is doubtful Wisconsin will get torched in the opening 15 minutes but the Badgers have not been at their best early on in recent games. Nebraska led them 17-3 last week after the first 16 minutes and even Purdue trailed by only one point early in the second quarter two weeks back.
Wisconsin did score 59 points last week – the seventh time in the last three years the Badgers popped for 50 or more. However, they averaged just 23 points per game in the six following games.
With Iowa’s offense averaging 32 ppg in its first six league games, look for the Hawkeyes to score somewhere in the mid-20’s, which will be just enough to either win the game or stay within the inflated number.
Speaking of the spread, Wisconsin is favored by 10 points. If this game was played three weeks ago, the line would have been Wisconsin by around a field goal. Bettors should thank their lucky stars that Gordon had such an outstanding game last week, something that has a lot to do with the increased number.
Take Iowa plus 10 points in the first of four three-star plays.
The other three games involve Atlantic Coast Conference squads.
Virginia hosts Miami-Florida with both teams coming off losses to Florida State. The Cavaliers fell to the Seminoles by two touchdowns in Tallahassee, while the Hurricanes lost by four at home.
Virginia has played much better at home as its 4-2 mark suggests. (The Cavs are 0-4 on the road.) One of the losses came by one point and the other came by eight against UCLA. The Hurricanes are 5-1 at home but just 1-3 on the road.
Virginia has more than held its own against Miami over the years. Not only have the Cavs won three of the last four meetings, but they also have covered six of the last nine.
Virginia needs to win its last two games to be bowl eligible. Mike London’s squad should get halfway there after upsetting Miami.
Take Virginia plus six points.
Boston College squares off against Florida State in Tallahassee. As is the case with Virginia, the Eagles were off last week while their opponent was playing an archrival.
Florida State continues to fall behind early as Miami led 16-0 in the second quarter. It was the fourth straight game the Seminoles had trailed in the first half.
They wound up beating the Hurricanes for their 26th consecutive win, and surprisingly, covered the spread despite trailing for approximately 57 of the 60 minutes. It is important to note Florida State has not covered two straight games the entire season.
Boston College is no world-beater but the Eagles have hit the magic six-win mark, which includes a home victory over USC.
Not much was expected from them in 2014 with the loss of eight offensive starters but they have risen to the challenge and played well in all but two games – last time out against Louisville and on Sept. 5 versus Pittsburgh.
The Eagles, who upset USC a week after losing to the Panthers, have won all three games after a loss this season. Don’t expect them to pull off another upset this week but anything is possible with Florida State getting ready to host another archrival in the Florida Gators the following Saturday.
Take Boston College plus 19.5 points.
Finally, Louisville takes on Notre Dame in a non-conference battle. The Cardinals have held every opponent (outside of Florida State) to 23 points or less. They are 3-2 on the road this year and 22-8 away from home going back to 2010.
Turnovers will be the key in this game, especially since Notre Dame is usually good for at least two per game. Louisville is 10th nationally in turnovers gained with 25.
The Cardinals, who come into South Bend off an off week, also have the edge in conditioning since Notre Dame played a heart-wrenching overtime contest against Northwestern last Saturday. Don’t forget, the Fighting Irish have another huge matchup against USC on Nov. 29.
The Irish certainly will not overlook Louisville, especially after losing two straight games for the first time since early 2011. Still, they are a team that has not played a solid 60-minute game since late September.
Take Louisville plus 3.5 points.
TWO-STAR SELECTIONS
Take Kansas State +2 (West Virginia) and Louisiana Tech -11.5 (Old Dominion).
ONE-STAR PLAYS
Take UTEP +8 (Rice) and Minnesota +10.5 (Nebraska)
THIS YEAR’S RECORD
My overall record stands at 88-81-5 after a 7-4 mark in Week 12. The two five- star selections actually both came out victorious, which improved the overall record 8-8. The three-star plays went 2-1 and are 15-12-1 overall. The two- star choices went 2-1 for a 12-week total of 31-28. The one-star plays went 1-2 for a 34-33-4 mark.
THIS WEEK’S JEFF FRANK DIRTY DOZEN
1) Oregon, 105; 2) Georgia, 103.5; 3) Ohio State, 103; 4-T) Alabama and Baylor, 102.5; 6) Ole Miss, 101.5; 7-T) TCU and Michigan State, 100; 9-T) Florida State and Mississippi State, 99; 11) Wisconsin, 98.5; 12) USC, 96
(The Dirty Dozen is not a reflection of a given team’s won-loss record. It is based on power ratings used to predict spreads for the upcoming week. At the beginning of the season, all FBS teams are assigned a power number, which changes on a week-to-week basis depending on the results of the previous week.)
Categorized in: NCAA Football