Is the 2011 MLB Season Already Over?

Major League Baseball has five months left in the 2011 season, as the 107th edition of the World Series will start and end in October of 2011. However, some MLB fans and self-labeled experts are predicting that the season may be unofficially over as of the end of May. Why? Because historically speaking, most baseball teams that go on to the postseason already establish their game dominance by Memorial Day.

Ever since the year 1995 (when East, Central and West subdivisions were introduced), statistically speaking, 60% of all teams who were leading their divisions on Memorial Day went on to the postseason. Of 132 frontrunners, over 60% led in standings on the holiday weekend and remained there until the very end. In 2010, five of the eight teams that went on to finish the season on top were already shining by Memorial Day, just weeks after the season’s debut.

What is the explanation behind the phenomenon? Is it just plain luck or coincidence? The Memorial Day predictor could make sense if you examine it on rational terms. An outfit that has assembled a great team and has an effective strategy going into the early season will usually build on that positive momentum and sustain it–unless they drop the ball and start making mistakes.

Of course, the Memorial Day factor (though it has been right at least 60%) of the time, is not always an indicator. The San Francisco Giants, the 2010 World Series winner, were dominated in the early season by the Padres, Dodgers and even the Rockies. However, by summer they reestablished their winning streak, going 20-8 in July.

Nevertheless, the Memorial Day phenomenon continues for the most part. If history repeats itself, this season’s winners may prove to be one of the current Memorial Day division leaders such as the Boston Red Sox (East), the Cleveland Indians (Central), or the Texas Rangers (West). In terms of total wins, the National League’s East and Central divisions have the advantage in late May; the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals lead the league with 33 and 32 wins respectively.

What do you think? Is this season going to be easy to predict or will there be an underdog winner?

Categorized in: MLB

Tags: MLB