Ole Miss unlikely to keep winning streak intact

Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) – Ole Miss comes into Kyle Field in College Station tied for third in the latest AP poll after upsetting Alabama. Unfortunately for Ole Miss fans, the Rebels’ unbeaten season will end this Saturday against Texas A&M.

Usually, a third-ranked squad is favored over its competition unless the opposition is the higher-ranked club. In this instance, Ole Miss is the underdog, not against Florida State or Auburn, but versus the 14th-ranked Aggies.

Texas A&M opened as a three-point favorite and the Aggies remain the betting choice by two despite losing a 17-point decision in their last contest to the team Ole Miss is tied with in this week’s rankings. That alone should tell you the oddsmakers believe either: (1) the Rebels’ victory over Alabama was a fluke or (2) the likelihood of a letdown off the win over the Crimson Tide is extremely high.

I would vote for the latter since Ole Miss certainly is one of the top teams in the country. However, coming off the biggest victory in school history, the odds of winning on the road against Texas A&M are almost slim and none.

Ole Miss has not had much conference road success in recent years. In fact, the Rebels are 4-17 straight up since 2009 and three of those wins came against Vanderbilt. The other victory was a three-point score over a 4-8 Arkansas team in 2012.

Texas A&M throws the ball at a much higher rate than any team Ole Miss has faced this season, and the loss of Trae Elson (suspended the first half) will hurt. Ole Miss has defended the pass just 47 percent of the time in 2014 while Texas A&M throws the ball 59 percent of the time.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s two toughest games came against run-based competition in Arkansas and Mississippi State. Ole Miss runs the ball only 52 percent of the time so look for the Aggies’ defensive scoring average to improve after allowing 76 points the last two contests.

On the other hand, the Ole Miss offense must get out to a much better start than it has the last two weeks if it wants to compete with Texas A&M. The Rebels tallied just seven points over the first three quarters versus Memphis and then put up only three first-half points against Alabama.

Take Texas A&M minus two points in the first of three three-star plays.

TWO OTHER THREE-STAR SELECTIONS

BYU’s hopes of a major bowl bid ended when Taysom Hill fractured his leg against Utah State. The fact the Cougars wound up losing to the Aggies was insignificant compared to the loss of Hill.

Christian Stewart, the primary backup, threw three interceptions while completing just 10-of-29 passes in the second half. And it is not as if Utah State’s passing defense is playing superb ball. The Aggies are allowing 259 passing yards per game, which includes games against Idaho State and Wake Forest.

UCF eeked out a five-point win in Houston last Thursday when Cougars’ quarterback Greg Ward Jr. fumbled the ball out of UCF’s end zone inside the final minute of play. The Knights won 17-12 despite gaining only 225 total yards. Overall, they are averaging just 17 points per game in their three FBS contests

Don’t expect too many points from BYU with Stewart manning the controls. In addition, look for the Cougars’ defense to rise to the challenge knowing the offense will not be putting up anywhere near the 37.5 points it averaged over the first four games.

Take under 45 points.

NC State hosts Boston College with the Wolfpack coming off their worst loss since 2000 when Florida State ripped them 58-14. Still, the defeat at the hands of Clemson might have hurt more considering they were shut out, 41-0, and outgained 493 yards to just 154.

The loss was expected considering how much effort was placed in the game against the Seminoles the week before. Now they are back home against an up- and-down Boston College squad.

The Eagles defeated USC in Week 3 but also lost at home to Pittsburgh and Colorado State, both SU and ATS. They have played just one road game this season – a 30-7 victory over winless Massachusetts – a contest Boston College led just 6-0 at the half.

Boston College has won just one of its last eight conference road games and NC State has won the last two home meetings against the Eagles by scores of 27-10 and 44-17.

Take NC State -3.5 points.

TWO-STAR SELECTIONS

Take Texas Tech +5.5 (West Virginia), North Texas +6.5 (UAB), Arkansas State – 9.5 (Georgia State), Florida +1 (LSU) and Houston +8.5 (Memphis),

ONE-STAR PLAYS

Take Washington State +17 (Stanford), Middle Tennessee +24.5 (Marshall), Wisconsin -25 (Illinois), Purdue +21 (Michigan State), FIU +12 (UTSA) and under 47 in LSU-Florida.

THIS YEAR’S RECORD

My overall record stands at 55-40-1 after a 6-7-1 mark in Week 6. There were zero five-star selections so they remain at 4-3. The headline game won outright as Utah defeated UCLA, and the other write-up game prevailed as well (under in Stanford-Notre Dame) so the three-star selections moved to 9-1. The two-star choices went 2-4 for a six-week total of 18-20. The one-star plays went 2-3-1 for a 24-16-1 mark.

THIS WEEK’S JEFF FRANK DIRTY DOZEN

1) Auburn, 102.5; 2) Florida State, 102; 3-T) Ole Miss and Baylor, 101; 5) Alabama, 100.5; 6-T) Oklahoma and Ohio State, 99; 8) Michigan State, 98; 9) Georgia, 97.5; 10-T) Oregon and Mississippi State, 96.5; 12) TCU, 95

(The Dirty Dozen is not a reflection of a given team’s won-loss record. It is based on power ratings used to predict spreads for the upcoming week. At the beginning of the season, all FBS teams are assigned a power number, which changes on a week-to-week basis depending on the results of the previous week.)

Categorized in: NCAA Football